A recent study by Nemertes Research Group predicts a substantial slowing of the Internet by 2010, as it will become unable to cope with the scale of data being exchanged. A year long study by the company into data flows and Internet infrastructure concluded that severe bottlenecks could occur in just three to five years.

While core fibre and switching/routing resources are expected to cope with user demand, internet access infrastructure is believed to be inadequate, specifically in North America.

The financial investment required to “bridge the gap” between demand and capacity ranges from $42 billion to $55 billion in the US, primarily to be spent on broadband access capacity. This is between 60 to 70% more than service providers currently plan to invest. Required investment globally is estimated at $137 billion, again primarily in broadband access.

Problems with inadequate infrastructure are expected to result in increased access times and pressure on bandwidth, to such an extent that innovation will be curtailed. “It’s important to note that even if we make the investment necessary between now and 2010, we still might not be prepared for the next killer application or new internet-dependent business like Google or YouTube. The Nemertes study is evidence the exaflood is coming,” said Larry Irving, co-chairman of the Internet Innovation Alliance.

E-commerce could also become unstable, with erratic access times causing consumers to lose confidence in Internet transactions. However, businesses with access to fast network connections would suffer less than consumers, leading to a widening of a digital divide, the study mentioned. The authors do not envisage that the internet will actually fail to operate, but that access times and bandwidth constraints will fall to such levels that innovation will be seriously hampered.