Global Insight, the economic and financial analysis and forecasting company, has announced the findings of an inaugural report produced by its new Telecoms Intermodal Forecasting Service. According to the report, India and China will remain the world's growth engine for wireless services, accounting for 60% of the 1.2 billion predicted new mobile subscribers over the next five years.

The report compares the world's 20 leading developed and emerging markets between 2006 and 2011, and predicts that over the next five years, market penetration of wireless services will grow from 34.8% to 69.1% in China; and from 13.4% to 31.0% in India.

The report predicts a 4.5% decline in traditional fixed-line accesses as the growth in China and India markets fail to offset the erosion of traditional accesses in markets like Japan, South Korea, and Europe.

"As a result of substitution, the next five years will see a fundamental shift in the revenue make-up of the global telecoms industry. In these 20 markets, fixed-line's share of total telecoms revenues will collectively fall from 39% in 2006 to 21% in 2011; while by the end of 2011, mobile will account for over two-thirds of total telecom revenues in those markets," stated Julian Watson, director, Global Insight Telecom Products.

The report also notes that China will account for more than one-third of the 350 million-plus new broadband subscriptions anticipated over the next five years, surpassing Japan as the world’s second largest broadband market. US will continue to cling on to its position as the world's largest mobile and broadband market.